Change is scary.  We all get into comfort zones professionally and in personal life where we continue time tested processes and resist change.  Technology improves over time and commonly enhances our lives.  It took Lewis & Clark approximately 18 months to travel from St. Louis to the Pacific Ocean (They departed St. Louis on May 14, 1804 and reached the Pacific coastline on November 7, 1804).  Today, a person can travel from St. Louis, Missouri to Portland, Oregon (a short drive from the Pacific Ocean) in about four hours by plane.  Historically, technological evolutions have created jobs and did not diminish them.  The unanswered questions are where will the jobs be, what will they be doing, and who will executively manage the people working in them. The entrepreneurs who can identify where staff, services, and products will be needed by society in the future will have the opportunity to be successful and make a lot of money.

NASA used to utilize manually performed calculations in support of its flights in the 1960’s.  The people who performed those calculations were called “computers”.   They were depicted in the movie, Hidden Figures.  A person in leadership for the “computers”, Dorthy Vaughn, identified that technological change was coming and learned how to operate NASA’s new IBA computer.  Through gaining knowledge and leadership, she did not see her team let go, but placed in a progressively more fulfilling, valued positions.  The transition was depicted in this scene in the movie (https://youtu.be/MhAEb3ZbH0k?si=1HDTyqIgQgvvOKvG).

In 1984, Lucasfilm, which had created a division five years earlier to explore the integration of computers into filmmaking, hired a young Disney animator, John Lasseter, who had been fired for embracing the opportunity that was computer animation.  Disney’s view at the time was that it was never going to work.  The division became Pixar (https://medium.com/@navsrujan.mit/pixar-when-technology-learned-to-dream-54578912114f). Today the animation industry is approaching $400 billion in revenue with people creating videos for advertising, video games, television, and movies.  It is anticipated to reach $528 billion by 2030.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that just under 60,000 jobs exist today for animators and that the occupation will continue to grow in numbers over the next five years (https://ianimate.net/more/articles/animation-industry-needs-animators-what-the-future-holds).

AI and automation have the ability to enhance productivity and eliminate positions that are unrewarding or hard to fill.  Completing and reviewing the equivalent to the TPS reports in the movie Office Space (https://youtu.be/jsLUidiYm0w?si=Ky_kmcTZbb7QZ6Iq) is not something that most people bounce out of bed in the morning excited to engage with professionally.  A reallocation of staff to positions that enhance revenue and productivity at companies facilitates revenue growth and results in more fulfilled staff.  In many industries simply finding staff can be problematic. This is true in the restaurant industry.  Many positions in hospitality have high turnover due to their monotony (Think washing dishes, something I did at age 15) and the difficulty for management to staff them efficiently as a profit minded business owner.  The present minimum wage in Seattle is $21.30 per hour.  Drilling into the dishwasher example, let’s say a dishwasher wants to work 8 hours a day and a restaurant is open from 11:00 A.M. to 10:00 P.M. to capitalize on both lunch & dinner demand.  If the dishwasher comes in at 10:00 A.M. and leaves at 7:00 P.M. with one hour of breaks throughout the day, they likely would be most productive between 11:30 A.M. – 1:30 P.M. and 5:00 P.M. to 7:00 P.M. Half of their time would either be at low capacity or need to be assigned to other responsibilities.  Ownership in this example, assuming one dishwasher is sufficient, still needs to problem solve for the hour the person is at lunch or breaks and from 7:00 – 10:00 P.M. In this situation, the employee would have gross compensation of approximately $200 per day or $1000 a week.  Good for them, if that is their place in the economy based on their knowledge & experience.  The problem is how many meals are served from 1:30 P.M. to 5:00 P.M. to cover this wage and that of the rest of the staff?  How busy does the business need to be during its most productive hours to cover this overhead? The solution, automation, a trend that is gaining momentum in the hospitality industry (https://www.qsrmagazine.com/story/can-robots-provide-lifeline-for-restaurants-coping-with-labor-challenges/). This trend also benefits consumers because if an order is placed using a touch screen and some processes are automated where the producers do not need to be paid during slower times and/or provided with health insurance benefits, the business can likely offer food at a lower price to its customers.

So, where are the positions of tomorrow going to be found?  The answer is where the most rewarding jobs have always been found, the places that require knowledge and ability to perform.  If there is going to be a proliferation of robots in food service?  Where are the people to sell and service that equipment today? They are scarce or non-existent.  Opportunity is knocking for entrepreneurs and employees.  Who will answer the door?  If the dishwasher mentioned above is into fitness, who says they cannot become a personal trainer as an alternative vocation.  The average personal trainer in Washington earns over $33 an hour  (https://www.indeed.com/career/personal-trainer/salaries/WA), a substantial raise over the $21 per hour earned dishwashing.

Is it wrong to put a burden on our education system and individuals to prepare themselves for vocational placement in the future?  Humans are happier when they are socially connected (https://ccare.stanford.edu/press_posts/good-social-relationships-are-the-most-consistent-predictor-of-a-happy-life/).  I believe society moving toward vocations where people engage with each other on a human level will only enhance the quality of our society.

I have been a mergers & acquisitions intermediary for 32 years, it is a profession that requires deep comprehensive knowledge in a spectrum of professional domains (Accounting, Tax, Finance, Law, Real Estate, Business, Insurance, Psychology, Etc.).  The ability to take a diverse data set and apply it in a dynamic environment to facilitate agreement between parties acting in their own self-interest is not something that can be achieved by having two computer agents go back and forth anymore than a computer can select what you are in the mood for as dinner.  Sometimes you may want fajitas and other days salmon, one day pizza and the next day a salad.  Inspiration/motivation are something that is authentically human.  Computers can look at historical information and make predictions based on historical probability, but their ability to satisfy without thought leadership may never be reached.

I recall one time selling a company that manufactured equipment for use in the nuclear industry to a former executive in the communications industry who worked for Sprint in Asia and desired to return to the states.  He did not know specifically what he was seeking as a buyer when we first met.  I got to know him and found out he went to college on a Navy ROTC scholarship. When the business entered the market, I approached him with the idea of acquiring the business because he was familiar with nuclear powered vessels and the business had the Navy as a customer.  The probability of him identifying this acquisition opportunity without my guidance was likely low.  The likelihood of him reaching agreement with the seller without professional facilitation was equally small.  The difference maker was original thought and professional skill.  Another good illustration of original thought in a M&A transaction was this scene in Working Girl (https://youtu.be/m8WRHX2t_hE?si=v7SMhrCJbFnsr_7f).  The film was one of my inspirations to enter this profession.  The germination of an idea has to start somewhere.  Many times ideas are born in unexpected places.

There is an old expression, “No one ever listens themselves out of a deal”.  I believe this can be easily applied to identifying where the jobs and career paths of tomorrow will be.  It is my belief they will be found in areas where people can employ knowledge and skill passionately.

I am not alone in the premise that there will be more and not less jobs for those willing & able to work.  Nikesh Arora, CEO of Palo Alto Networks, recently shared a similar opinion on the New York Times’ Hard Fork podcast (https://www.businessinsider.com/palo-alto-networks-ceo-nikesh-arora-ai-reduce-engineers-2026-5).

Embrace the possible.  To quote FDR from his first inaugural addresss, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

IBA, the Pacific Northwest’s premier business brokerage firm since 1975, is available as an information resource to the media, business brokerage, mergers & acquisitions, real estate, legal, and accounting communities on subjects relevant to the purchase & sale of privately held companies and family businesses.  IBA is recognized as one of the best business brokerage firms in the nation based on its long track record of successfully negotiating “win-win” business sale transactions in environments of full disclosure employing “best practices”.